• Shorted USO into the oil gap-up, got chopped on both sides

• CYCN gap-down short kept failing, low-quality idea

• COCP short worked briefly in premarket, re-entered after open for a shallow fade

• Bad stock selection day, too much forcing on low-reward setups

Trades I Took

USO

Oil was gapping up huge overnight after Trump’s address signaled no de-escalation anytime soon, and folks on Twitter were pointing out this was a fat tail event for anyone trading Brent/WTI spreads. I tried catching the top in USO thinking it was going to set up some incredible big opportunity on the short side.

Instead it just chopped me up. I caught the intraday news panic to make some back, but then it V-shaped right back and I ended up giving a big chunk of that back again. Classic case of forcing a thesis onto a name that wasn’t ready to roll over.

CYCN

This was the name from yesterday that had good news and was gapping down today. I tried to short the breakdown, but it held, and I kept trying. Such a low reward trade, and I don't know why I was even messing with it. This is the same exact thing as yesterday on ELAB, a low-quality idea where I'm trying to make something work and end up wasting energy in terrible low-liquidity price action.

COCP

This was the isolated small-cap gapper that wasn’t tied to oil. It’s a biotech company up on an FDA fast track designation, which is essentially meaningless as a catalyst. I got short in premarket and it worked briefly, but it reclaimed and pushed higher at the open to stop me out. It ticked over pre-market highs and then sold off hard, so I joined the selling and shorted again. I was only able to capture a shallow fade as it went sideways most of the afternoon.

Takeaways

Bad stock selection was the theme today. USO was a thesis trade that turned into a meat grinder, and CYCN was a low-quality gap-down short that I should have never touched. COCP was the cleanest idea on the board and even that only gave a shallow fade.

Tomorrow’s (Monday) Focus

Kill the gap-down shorts after a one-day run. If it looks like CYCN or ELAB, walk away.

Question for Readers

Have you ever had a day where you knew the best trade on the board (COCP) but spent most of your energy on the worst one (USO)? How do you catch yourself before the damage is done?

Markets closed tomorrow. Have a great weekend!

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• Shorted USO on the oil gap down, took multiple cuts as it held support

• Shorted ELAB twice, stopped out both times including a surprise halt squeeze

• Scalped CYCN short and long off the extension, then overstayed on a short and got squeezed in afterhours

• Rough day across the board with no clean winners

Trades I Took

USO

Oil was gapping down this morning and I shorted USO looking for continuation lower. It held support multiple times and I kept taking cuts, chopping myself up on what turned into a frustrating back and forth.

ELAB

ELAB was a pseudo multi-day runner and I took a short after it rejected VWAP off the open. I got stopped out of that first attempt, then re-shorted as it failed to continue higher. The second entry looked better but ELAB consolidated under VWAP all afternoon and then halted out of nowhere, stopping me out again.

After the halt it squeezed higher violently. Crazy games on that one, and a good reminder that multi-day runners can do irrational things when you least expect it.

CYCN

CYCN was the small-cap gapper of the day, and it actually had legitimate news behind it with some big investors raising a couple hundred million dollars. I identified it early as a quick scalp type of vehicle given the momentum profile.

I shorted it off the extension for a scalp, then flipped long for a quick scalp on the other side, and both of those worked as intended. The problem came when I switched gears and got short looking for the bigger fade, even though I’d already recognized this was quick in-and-out price action. I held the short into the close and got squeezed out for a loss as it spiked in afterhours.

Takeaways

The CYCN situation is the one that stings the most because I correctly read the type of price action and context it was and then ignored my own read. When you identify something as a scalp vehicle, trade it like a scalp vehicle. Switching to a longer hold mid-trade because you want the bigger move is how you turn a decent day into a rough one.

Across the board today, I was fighting trades that didn’t want to work instead of recognizing early that the setups weren’t cooperating.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Match the trade plan to the price action type I identify, and when I call something a scalp, hold myself to that.

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• Best trade of the day was VRAX. Clean small cap fade and I stayed active around the position well.

• USO took a couple tries, but the original idea was right and the real move came once the news and technical setup lined up.

• GLD worked well on the long side. I managed it fine, but missed the better add later in the day.

Trades I Took

USO

USO (Oil) was getting extended and had been up four days in a row so I was looking for a mean reversion setup. It was gapping down in pre-market even with more war-related headlines overnight.

I shorted in pre-market, added a bit more after the open, and covered some on the first wash below the pre-market range. Then oil bounced and stopped me out, but I still thought the thesis was intact.

A few hours later, fresh headlines hit saying Iran’s president was ready to end the war. Markets ripped, oil sold off hard, and I was able to jump on the breaking news candle and catch the big flush. The best trades are when the news and chart align.

VRAX

VRAX was a low-float biotech under $1, up on ISO news, and it fit the profile of a historical fader. I’ve traded this ticker a bunch in the past. I started short in pre-market and kept recycling around a core as it started to fade.

At the open I pressed it again and kept reshoring each lower high. That let me stay with the move without overcomplicating it, and I caught the big wash pretty well. I covered most of it there and this ended up being one of the cleanest trades of the day.

GLD

GLD (Gold) was breaking over a clean range on the daily after it found a potential short term bottom last week. I got long on the break over open range highs and got steady upside follow-through. I scaled out in pieces as it trended up the entire day.

One spot I could have added more was when it consolidated above VWAP and broke higher again. Solid trade, but I didn’t maximize it.

Swings

I bought RKLB for a swing. It was bouncing off the 200-day moving average and I liked the mix of theme strength plus some possible upcoming catalysts.

Current holdings: RKLB

Other Notable Mentions

KIDZ was the other main small cap gapper and I missed it. It gave a clean fade and I just was not involved.

Takeaways

Today was a good reminder that the thesis can still be right even if the first entry is not. USO took a few tries, but staying flexible let me catch the real move when the headline finally confirmed the setup. VRAX was the cleanest execution of the day. Going into tomorrow, I want to stay sharp on intraday adds in winners because I left some extra on the table in GLD.

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• No trades all morning, nothing worth forcing on a Monday

• Small caps in play (ELAB, ASTC, BFRG) but all low quality with no clean setups

• Shorted NVDA on the afternoon breakdown below the low of day range, covered at the close

• Markets still weak with no capitulation washout yet

Trades I Took

NVDA

I didn’t touch anything all morning. It was Monday, the setups weren’t there, and I wasn’t about to force something just to be active. A few small caps were floating around (ELAB, ASTC, BFRG) but they were all low quality and none of them offered anything clean, so I was happy to sit on my hands.

In the afternoon, NVDA started setting up for a breakdown. It had been trading on the lower end of its range all morning, sitting under the big daily pivot at 170 and below Friday’s low. All the confluence was lined up, so when it broke the low of day range I shorted it and caught some continuation to the downside. Covered it at the close.

Takeaways

Patience worked for me today. It’s been a long time since I actually sat out the entire opening session. Monday mornings don’t owe you anything, and forcing action on low quality setups is how you start the week in a hole. The NVDA short was a good reminder that when the setup comes to you with real confluence, the execution feels easy.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Keep the same patience from today and only engage when the confluence is obvious.

Question for Readers

How do you stay engaged and sharp on days when there’s nothing worth trading all morning? Do you step away from screens or stay glued in?

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• Shorted NVDA around the $170 level, covered in pieces as the breakdown lacked follow-through

• Caught a quick long on VXX off the open as the market sold off

• Shorted DXYZ anticipating a gap fill on failed breakout momentum, covered into the move

• Skipped the small-cap runners (VSA, ARTL, ONCO) due to high locate costs

Trades I Took

NVDA

NVIDIA was gapping down with the broader market, and there’s a huge daily pivot and support level right at $170. The thesis was if that level breaks, we could see real weakness for a clean short setup. I took some short in pre-market anticipating the break.

At the open I added into the breakdown and caught a nice move and recycled the position a bit but the weakness wasn’t as strong as I expected so I trailed out on the next bounce.

Later in the day, NVDA was trading back near the lows and consolidating. I got short again looking for the continuation breakdown since the markets were overall weak and grinding lower but it didn’t move much.

VXX

With the markets gapping down and selling off, the VIX was strong and VXX was breaking out over a big level. I got long off the open, sold some, and basically just took that first leg.

VXX pulled all the way back to the low of day, then rebounded back to highs, broke out, and pushed higher almost into $40 toward the close. In hindsight, I should have stuck with that idea longer because the move ended up being much bigger than what I captured.

DXYZ

DXYZ had been in play the last couple days trying to gain momentum off the upcoming SpaceX IPO. My thinking was that if it couldn’t break out the previous two days, then gapping down and breaking below those levels might trigger a breakdown and gap fill.

I got short right before the open anticipating the previous day low break, which we got. It traded down to basically fill the gap and I covered there, then kept a tight trail. Good trade overall because it went sideways the rest of the day, so the entry and exit were both clean.

Swings / Watch List

Sold/stopped out of all my swing trades. Tough conditions for any follow-through.

There were a ton of nano-float small-cap runners today: VSA, ARTL, and ONCO. All had super high locate costs so I ended up not trading any of them. ARTL gave a huge squeeze and then an afternoon fade that would have been a really nice spot. VSA did some crazy pre-market price action, spiking down and instantly reclaiming back up before they ended up just offering at the end of the day. ONCO had a big clear out at the open followed by a major sell-off the rest of the session with a great entry under $3.85. Tricky action all around in small caps, and while I missed some moves, I also avoided some serious headaches.

The broader market is setting up for a potential mean reversion bounce early next week. MSFT, META, and the big tech names are bleeding out heavily, down 3, 4, 5+ days in a row and closing at the lows on a Friday. That’s the kind of setup you want to see for a gap-down capitulation come Monday. Statistically, this is the worst start to the year historically for the S&P.

Takeaways

Today was about having the right ideas and managing them reasonably, even if I left some on the table. The NVDA thesis was correct, VXX was correct, DXYZ was correct. Execution was solid but not perfect. The VXX trade stings a little because the move was there and I only took the first piece. Sticking with winners when the thesis is playing out is something to keep working on.

Tomorrow’s (Monday) Focus

Watch for that Monday gap-down capitulation in big tech and be ready to flip long if we get the washout.

Happy Friday, hope everyone has a great weekend!

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• Longed DXYZ as a SpaceX IPO proxy, chopped around trying to get the entry right

• Shorted UGRO from premarket, covered the wash under 25, then re-shorted into a range that went nowhere

• Missed LNAI off the open but caught a short later when it bounced

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Trades I Took

DXYZ

This one has been gaining strength as a sympathy to the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and it gapped up yesterday before selling off hard. My thesis was that if it could reclaim that gap-up level, it had a shot at catching some momentum from buyers still looking for SpaceX exposure.

I started a long position in premarket but ended up chopping around a bit. I stopped out before I actually hit my real stop level, then got back in. Not my cleanest execution, stopping out early and then re-entering is the kind of thing that turns a fine idea into unnecessary damage.

UGRO

UGRO blew everyone out yesterday into the close and again in after hours, pushing all the way up to around 56 before selling off. I wasn’t around for the after-hours move unfortunately, but it was gapping down this morning and the daily chart still looked like it had room to go lower.

I started short in premarket and added more right before the open, then covered everything on the wash under 25. That initial move worked well. I shorted it a couple more times through the day, but it was stuck in a range and I was trying to squeeze more out of a name that needed time to digest. Looking at the daily, it still hasn’t even printed a red day yet, so the thesis might still be right, but forcing it in a consolidation range wasn’t the move.

LNAI

This was the top gapper on the day, up 124%. I wanted to get short on a bounce off the open, but it just fell apart immediately with no bounces at all, just a straight drop. I couldn’t get involved the way I wanted. Later in the day it finally bounced a bit and I put some shares on short since it was clearly dilutive and didn’t have a real bid underneath it.

Takeaways

Today was a lot of activity spread across a lot of names, and the results were mixed. The UGRO re-shorts after the initial cover and the DXYZ chop are the kind of trades that eat into a day that should have been cleaner. The initial UGRO short was a good read. The lesson is that follow-up attempts to squeeze more out of names that needed time were where the edge got dull.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Take the first good trade in a name and be more selective about going back to the well.

Question for Readers

When you cover a short that’s already moved big, how do you decide whether to take the money and walk away versus holding for more?

• Shorted RMSG on a D1 gap-up

• UGRO squeezed hard, caught a small piece of the fade

• Small shorts on USO for a breakeven

• Bought WULF as a swing position

Trades I Took

RMSG

D1 gapper up 100% on MOU news, but I didn’t think the news really mattered and the company is out of cash. Took a starter short after its morning push.

I trimmed a little early, added back, and caught the wash. Later it started consolidating under VWAP, which made me think it could squeeze like UGRO on Monday, so I stopped out of the remaining short on the reclaim. I tried a quick long, sold when that failed, then got short again on the next wash. Tough price action, but manageable.

UGRO

Another wild move. It looked weak early and then started trending up in pre-market, which should have been a warning sign. I shorted the breakdown off the open but it consolidated, made a higher low just under VWAP, and broke out again, so I covered.

Then it put in a massive squeeze all the way to $16. At that point it was extended enough to look for a short, and I caught a small piece of the fade, but it didn’t even reach VWAP before holding and reclaiming. I stopped out, and that stop would have been the perfect long entry as it halted up. No one could have guessed what it would do after that. Hitting $50 now in afterhours. Just a monster move.

This is why risk management is THE most important thing in trading (especially small caps). You let your guard down for a second and your account could be gone.

USO

I tried a couple small shorts looking for breakdown continuation, but it bounced right away so I took it off.

Swings

Long WULF as a new swing position. Sold some GLW.

Current holdings: EQT GLW WULF

Takeaways

The low float names this week have been brutal. They’re either squeezing out relentlessly or putting in these last-ditch afternoon spikes that clear everyone out before reversing. The RMSG starter was technically outside my PMH rules, and even though it worked, that’s a habit worth correcting. All you can really do in weeks like this is manage risk and not let frustration push you into forcing setups.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Continue to stick to system confirmation rules, no matter how tempting the starter looks.

Question for Readers

When a name is consolidating right under VWAP and it reminds you of a previous ticker that squeezed, do you trust the pattern recognition and bail, or do you stick with your thesis and hold?

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• Shorted PAVS twice, stopped out both times, then it halted down on offering news minutes later.

• Shorted UGRO on the opening range breakdown, covered for scratch.

• Attempted mean reversion longs on CRCL near 100, didn’t work, moved on.

• Being away from the desk cost me on two trades today

Trades I Took

PAVS

PAVS was the top gapper this morning after news yesterday that they’d terminated their $100 million ATM, though they still had dilution available through a $200 million shelf. It’s a historical fader, so I liked the short thesis, but there were some red flags.

I thought there was a decent chance it could roll over and potentially see an offering. I shorted the open, got stopped out quickly as it held, then re-entered when it pushed above pre-market highs and drifted back below.

Tried staying patient for the bigger move but got stopped out in the afternoon, and then almost immediately it double-topped and halted straight down on offering news. That one stings. The thesis was right, my system just didn’t survive the volatility.

UGRO

This was the big runner from yesterday afternoon and into after hours. This morning it was gapping up slightly and chopping sideways through all of pre-market, so when it failed and broke opening range lows I got short and added on the bounce. I was away from the desk with only a stop in, so I missed the wash down to the 6.50s where I should have been taking covers. However my targets for this setup were much lower.

CRCL

Circle was selling off hard, doing almost 3x its ATR on the day. I was looking for a mean reversion long bounce near 100 and tried a couple of times just above that level. It kept failing so I let it go. It eventually washed under 100 later in the afternoon and bounced from there. This isn’t really my typical trade, I’m not a parabolic bounce guy, but the opportunity looked clean enough to warrant the attempts. Small losses, no regrets on that one.

Swings

-Bought GLW

Current holdings: EQT GLW

Takeaways

Today was a lesson in desk time. The PAVS and UGRO theses were both solid, but being away meant I couldn’t manage either position properly. If I’m going to be away, I either need to skip the trade entirely or accept that stop-only management is going to cost me on days like this.

Question for Readers

How do you handle it when you know you’ll be away from the desk mid-trade? Do you skip the setup entirely, use passive targets, or just accept the stop risk and take the shot?

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• Nailed the USO short off the oil unwind, traded it well early

• Passed on UGRO early setup, then forced bad shorts late

• Gave back some gains trying to top tick instead of waiting for confirmation

Trades I Took

USO

Trump/Iran headlines hit around 7am and flipped things fast. Index futures ripped while oil sold off. I got short on the bounce in pre and added at the open. Took profits into the move, re-added on bounces, and caught another flush under pre-market lows.

Left a small runner but got stopped out when it bounced. Re-entered later but cut it when there was no follow through. Good read and execution early.

UGRO

Low float gapper that I was watching for a fade. It double topped early and broke down, but I didn’t take it as it was too close to a daily pivot that held prior.

Later it reclaimed and squeezed hard from 4 to near 7. I missed the long and then tried to short the extension, which was a mistake. Got chopped up taking anticipatory entries without confirmation. Eventually caught some fade but wasn’t worth it.

Big squeeze in afterhours now. Will be on watch tomorrow.

Swings

Current holdings: EQT

Takeaways

Good job sticking with the USO thesis early and taking profits into the move.

UGRO is the bigger lesson. I passed on the clean setup, then got involved late trying to force something that wasn’t there. If I miss the move, just let it go.

For tomorrow: be more disciplined with confirmations, especially late in the day, and avoid trying to top tick strong momentum.

Question for Readers

Ever missed a great trade on one side and tried to force it on the other? How do you keep yourself from chasing?

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Traveling today so the recap will be a bit shorter than normal

The S&P 500 dropped about 2.1% on the week while the Nasdaq fell roughly 2% as markets dealt with a stacked calendar and zero relief on any front. Brent closed at $112 on Iran-related supply fears around Kharg Island, creating an inflation overhang that killed risk appetite early in the week and never really let up. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday, and Powell tried to thread the needle between oil‑driven inflation risks and growth concerns, but markets were looking for a more decisive dovish shift and sold into the statement and presser.

Big tech took the worst of it, with $MSFT down 3.5% and $META losing 3.2% as the “software apocalypse” narrative picked up steam, the idea that AI capex is ballooning while actual software revenue growth stalls. $MU reported midweek and ended down despite being the most-watched print among active traders.

Even the utilities and nuclear names that were supposed to be the AI power demand winners got hit, with $CEG down 6.5% and $NEE also red on the week. Heading into next week, risk appetite is fragile and oil remains the wildcard, any further escalation on the Iran front keeps a ceiling on this market.

Low-Float Small Caps

$WNW stole the show with a classic low-float blowoff—$2.25 to $13.50, then a full collapse to $0.15 (‑93%) on nearly 1B shares traded against a 2.4M float. $UCAR ran a similar script, squeezing to $1.75 before fading to $0.16 (‑66%). Both were clean front-side squeezes that turned into textbook backside fades once momentum cracked.

The rest followed suit. $CREG ran then dumped 77%, $HCWB round-tripped on massive volume, and even the relative “winners” like $AZTR and $AIM showed heavy selling off highs. $CTMX was weaker throughout, sliding 36% without a bounce.

Overall, it was a short-biased week. Crowded low-float runs consistently failed, with gap-and-crap behavior dominating once supply hit.

Watchlist

Don’t see anything worth noting. Not going to throw names in the list for the sake of generating content. Main watch will obviously be oil and any fresh gappers in premarket on Monday.

Upcoming Economic Events and Earnings

Quiet week, no high impact events worth noting. Should be cleaner price action and less noise.

Happy trading!

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• USO: quick pre-market short → reclaimed → cut and avoided chop

• CRCL: small short, realized wrong setup → scratched

• AIM: main trade → clean fade into $1, solid execution

Trades I Took

USO

Tried a pre-market short after a failed news pop, but it quickly reclaimed so I cut it. Left it alone after that and considered the long thesis over previous highs but would rather wait for FOMC and a clearer setup. No reason to force it.

CRCL

Took a small short pre-market thinking it might pull back with the market. Realized quickly that shorting a strong name wasn’t the right play. Scratched it for a small win and moved on. It never really broke down.

AIM

Main focus today. Big gapper with a history of fading. Started in pre-market and added on the pop at the open for a solid average.

Covered most into the move down to $1. Tried to re-short the bounce, overmanaged it a bit, but still got some decent adds and stayed with the idea. You can make a good living off this one setup.

Swings and Other Notable Mentions

Current holdings: EQT

Takeaways

Good job staying patient and not forcing trades. The main lesson is to stay aligned with the right names. AIM fit the playbook, CRCL didn’t. Stick to that.

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• COIN inside-day breakout. Small loss. Eventually went.

• UCAR and CREG both turned into clean small-cap fades.

Trades I Took

COIN

Got long COIN on the inside day range break looking for continuation with crypto strength.

The move never really followed through. It eventually worked later in the day, but I had already moved on by then.

UCAR

UCAR was one of the top gappers, up about 69%. It pushed over pmh with volume similar to HCWB yesterday, so I didn’t want to step in front of it too early.

It faded straight down under $1 without offering much structure. I caught a small bounce near $1 and rode the second leg down.

CREG

CREG hit my intraday scan. It’s another China name with a 19M float and after seeing WNW yesterday I was interested on the short side.

I got short on the first lower high and added on a couple bounces. After pulling back to pmh’s and the 200 SMA, it completely liquidated. I closed the trade around $1.24.

Takeaways

The key today was waiting for confirmation on these gappers. UCAR and CREG both worked once the momentum clearly failed. I want to keep avoiding early entries and let the trade come to me.

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• Nice and easy Monday morning. Most gappers didn’t fit my setups so I stayed patient.

• Small pre-market win shorting USO on oil weakness.

• First attempt shorting WNW failed, but the second entry caught a huge fade from ~$13 to ~$2.50.

Trades I Took

USO

Oil gapped down overnight and sold off into the open. I took a small short in USO during pre-market looking for continuation into yesterday’s lows and covered into that level. Couple more small trades on it.

WNW

Insane liquidation move. WNW had been grinding higher all morning, running from around $2 to nearly $10 and eventually speeding up and squeezing over $13.

My first short attempt using a faster signal got stopped out. I waited for a clearer turn and got short again once it started failing over $13. Lowest covers were $2.50. Big round-trip fade.

QBTS

I also tried a short in QBTS looking for a daily breakdown, risking $17.70. The level held and it started bouncing, so I took the trade off at breakeven.

Other Stocks In Play

HCWB and CTMX were the main pre-market gappers but neither really fit my short setups. HCWB was doing huge volume over $1, which often makes these harder to fade cleanly. CTMX was trending higher on positive drug news and breaking over a clear level, so I left it alone.

NBIS was also gapping on a major deal with Meta Platforms, but it wasn’t something I traded.

Meanwhile Jensen Huang said at the NVIDIA GTC Conference that NVDA could eventually reach $1T in revenue. The stock spiked on the comment but quickly sold off, which isn’t the best look for sentiment across the AI and data center names.

Swings:

Current holdings: EQT

Takeaways

Good reminder not to force trades on slow Monday mornings. Most of the early setups weren’t great.

The key trade was WNW. I took the first loss probing early, but waiting for the real turn led to the big move. Patience early, aggression once the setup shows up.

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Oil dominated everything this week (again). Monday opened with a massive gap up in crude after Iran/oil escalation fears sent energy ripping and everything else scrambling, then reversed hard into the close after Trump announced the conflict was “over,” giving $SPY a bullish engulfing candle that felt like a gift.

That optimism didn’t last long and by Thursday the damage continued. Iran struck two oil tankers, crude surged roughly 10% on the session, and Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA called it the largest oil supply disruption on record. $SPY dropped about 1.5% on the day.

Friday offered no relief either, $SPY sold off to fresh YTD lows while $VIX stayed elevated near 27. On the week, $SPY finished down about -1.5%, $QQQ held up better at roughly negative -1%, and $IWM lost around -1.7%.

Pockets of strength were worth noting. $XLE was the only sector that really worked as oil producers caught a direct bid from crude pushing toward $100. $HIMS ripped about 44% Monday after Novo Nordisk dropped its patent lawsuit and signed a deal to distribute branded Wegovy through the telehealth platform, with 35.5% short interest adding squeeze fuel.

$NBIS showed real strength on news of a $2B $NVDA investment, and memory names like $MU and $SNDK held firm while most of tech bled.

Bitcoin and crypto were another relative strength pocket, quietly outperforming risk assets. Heading into next week, the $NVDA GTC Conference starts Monday, $META just reported Friday, and the oil situation remains fluid. Leadership is narrow and defensive, so until this Iran overhang clears, expect headline-driven chop to continue.

Low-Float Small Caps

$ACXP led the week, ripping ~180% on a 2M float with 161M shares traded, running from $1.38 to $6.30 before fading to $3.88. $ATPC showed a similar move on an even tighter 400K float, doubling from $2.13 to $6.30 and closing at $4.44. $BIAF gained ~110% on 261M volume but held up better than most on the backside, while $ROMA spiked from $3 to $8.57 before settling near $5.40.

Most other gappers round-tripped: $AZI hit ~0.90 then closed flat, $KALA ran to $0.51 before fading to $0.28, $ISPC gave back its gap from $0.44 to $0.28, and $VTAK ran to $2.25 but closed below open at $1.36. $INKT had the sharpest reversal, spiking to $16.93 before dumping to $9.74, while $BATL finished the week down ~25%. The weak low-float cycle continues, some solid short fades, but names like $BIAF show selectivity still matters.

Watchlist

USO: oil pushing back toward the highs, curious to see if it has another leg or if supply steps in early this week.

GLD: gold showing some notable weakness and starting to disconnect from the usual safe-haven flows, worth watching if that continues.

COIN: lost levels on friday but if it can somehow reclaim and hold, that sets up a clean momentum move back through the range.

SNDK: creeping toward highs and a few days of tightening would be ideal here, but this one doesn’t feel like it wants to wait around.

EONR: starting to get stretched up here, watching for any signs of exhaustion on the next push.

Upcoming Economic Events and Earnings

Wednesday 8:30 AM | February PPI | Impact: HIGH | inflation read drops right before FOMC — sets the mood for the whole day, expect whipsaw if hot

Wednesday 2:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot | Impact: HIGH | rates expected unchanged but the dot plot and projections will rip or fade everything — nothing matters before 2 PM, size down until Powell’s done talking

Wednesday 2:30 PM | Powell Press Conference | Impact: HIGH | the real move happens here, not the statement — algo spikes on every sentence, untradeable for 30+ min

Wednesday AH | $MU Earnings | Impact: MED | bellwether semi — sets Thursday’s tone for NVDA/AMD/SMH, watch for gap-and-go or gap-and-fade at open

Friday all day | Quad Witching (Triple Witching) OpEx | Impact: MED | index options + futures + equity options all expire — erratic pinning action, inflated volume, weird moves into close

Wednesday is basically a minefield. PPI → FOMC → Powell → MU after hours. I’d circle that as the day to be most careful with size. The rest of the week is relatively clean.

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• Tried a crude oil short via USO but cut it quickly when the breakdown failed.

• BIAF turned into a problem ticker. I kept hitting 1-minute short signals and got chopped up before finally catching the afternoon crack.

• Small win fading ISPC based on its usual gap-and-fade behavior.

• Stopped out of UAMY swing trade

Trades I Took

USO

Crude triggered a higher timeframe trend break in pre-market and also gapping down, so I started in short through USO. When a headline hit around 8:45am, I added to the position expecting the weakness to accelerate.

Instead, the opposite happened. Oil held strong and never really started breaking down. Once it became clear the move wasn’t materializing, I cut the trade and moved on. The thesis didn’t play out and there was no reason to keep fighting it.

BIAF

BIAF was a biotech small cap gapping up on a revenue catalyst but I didn’t think it mattered. I first tried a short in pre-market but had to stop out when it held up.

Right after the open I made a small mistake and shorted it again on a conflicting signal and it cost me about another -0.25R. From there it turned into a problem ticker. Doing volume and trending over premarket highs. I kept hitting starters on 1min short signals and those cuts started adding up.

At that point the trade turned into more of a battle than it should have been. Eventually I stuck with one last attempt and finally caught the afternoon crack after it gave the true confirmation signal.

ISPC

I also shorted ISPC in the morning. It’s a $0.50 stock, which isn’t ideal, but most top gappers have been subbies lately. The main reason for the trade was its history as a gap-and-fade name. Statistically these gaps tend to give back a lot of the move.

I leaned on that data and the fade worked out well. I even piked it.

Swings and Other Notable Mentions

-Stopped out of UAMY. Good setup but the wrong environment.

Current holdings: EQT

Takeaways

Today turned into a classic example of getting stuck fighting a problem ticker. BIAF kept baiting shorts while holding strong levels, and I kept engaging with the 1-minute signals even though the higher timeframe confirmation never showed up until later.

The big lesson is sticking to the process. Systems are built for a reason. Monday focus: respect the system signals and avoid turning one ticker into a battle.

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• ROMA: Short near $8 on an extended move from $2. Caught multiple halt downs and scaled out from $5 to sub $4.

• ACXP: Early ORB short stopped out on a random spike in a thin name. Re-short worked better but liquidity stayed sketchy.

• ATPC: Tried a few breakout longs but it never held strength and stayed under VWAP.

• USO / Oil: Two short attempts on a news-driven drop, but oil stayed strong and reclaimed VWAP.

Trades I Took

ACXP

ACXP was a multi day runner that gapped down slightly. I shorted the opening range break looking for continuation lower.

The stock went sideways on very light volume and then a candle ripped from about $4.80 to intraday highs and stopped me out. It looked like someone just sent a large market order through the book.

I re-shorted shortly after using pmh as risk, which is what I should have done from the start. The trade behaved better, but another spike hit later (probably another market order) and I covered the rest and moved on.

ROMA

ROMA hit my scanners pushing toward $8. It is a China name with about a 50M float and no news, already extended from about $2 a few days ago.

It pushed into daily resistance and stalled so I took a starter short near $8. The stock rolled over and hit multiple halt downs. I scaled out from around $5 into the sub $4 area. I was only starter size but the huge fade made up for it.

ATPC

ATPC was gapping up over the prev red day highs which can lead to mega squeezes due to T+1 dynamics. I tried going long early looking for that move. The first attempt failed quickly. I tried again but the stock stayed under VWAP and every push higher got sold. After a couple attempts it was clear the move was not there and I left it alone.

USO (Oil)

Oil had been trending higher all day after a big overnight gap. Around 11:40 news hit that mines were not being laid in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a sharp drop. I used that as the trigger to get short.

The first trade stopped out as USO reclaimed VWAP. I tried again on the next breakdown and caught a quick flush to around 114, but I held looking for a bigger move and even added a little. It V-shaped hard and forced me out again. By the end of the day oil was making new highs and still trending strong.

Swings and Other Notable Mentions

Current holdings: EQT UAMY

Takeaways

ROMA was the clean trade. Extended move into resistance followed by a fast unwind.

ACXP was a reminder to be patient on entries and avoid thin names when the liquidity is dry. On oil the trigger was right but the trend was still clearly up, so quicker profit taking would likely have been the better approach.

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• SCNX fade worked well — classic dilution biotech that sold off steadily.

• Tried playing the datacenter theme through CRWV instead of grabbing NBIS or IREN. First trade failed, second one worked.

• Overall slow day. Biggest miss was the NBIS breakout.

Trades I Took

Datacenter names were on watch after ORCL reported strong earnings and NVDA announced a $2B investment in NBIS to expand AI cloud infrastructure. That gave the sector a tailwind.

NBIS ripped off the open and broke over premarket highs, but I didn’t want to chase. Instead I looked for a sympathy name and went long CRWV. The entry was a bit late, so I trimmed quickly and then had to stop out the rest when it first pulled back.

Shortly after, CRWV held VWAP while NBIS broke out of a big base around 110.50. That confirmed the strength, so I got long CRWV a second time. It pushed to new highs and I sold into the strength and then trailed out.

SCNX was the main gapper on biotech news. Yes. it’s a 0.50c stock, but it’s also a historical fader with a lot of dilution risk and the news didn’t mention any real sales figures or guidance.

I got short at the open and added on a lower high confirmation. The stock faded steadily most of the day.

I covered some along the way, then shorted the bounce again and covered more on the wash toward $0.50. Closed the rest at the bell. Pretty straightforward fade.

Swings and Other Notable Mentions

Current holdings: EQT UAMY

Takeaways

Slow day overall. The SCNX fade was the cleanest trade of the day.

The main lesson was around the datacenter theme, sometimes the best trade is just the leader instead of trying to find a sympathy name. Tomorrow I’ll stay open to taking the obvious one if the setup is there.

• Faded several oil names as crude rolled over.

• Best trades: ATPC fade and PLTR breakdown.

• Caught the first leg down in oil but missed the bigger second leg.

• Started a UAMY swing long on a daily breakout.

Trades I Took

ATPC was the top small cap gapper on oil-related news. After yesterday’s momentum flip in crude, I thought these oil names could fade instead of continuing higher.

I tried a starter short early but cut it quickly when it didn’t work. Later the real trigger came and I positioned in. It came close to my stop but never hit it.

I held most of the day and covered into the late-day washout near $3. No headaches on this one thankfully.

PLTR was pushing into the daily 50-day moving average and started looking heavy intraday. The main trigger was the break of the previous day’s low.

I anticipated it a bit early and had to sit through some chop before it finally gave way. Once that level broke the trade worked cleanly. I covered some on the flush through the prior-day lows and trailed the rest.

The idea was right, but the entry could have been cleaner by waiting for the actual break.

I shorted USO right at the open and added on the range break, but it quickly reclaimed so I cut it.

Later crude started rolling over again and I re-shorted. That move worked and I took some covers as oil accelerated lower. I tried to add for a second leg but the entry didn’t work so I cut it. Turns out I was too early on that second leg.

Oil eventually collapsed later in the day and I missed the bigger second leg down toward 95 on USO. It gave a great long opp as the move down was sharp, and if you held you got a headline boost at 2:15pm.

BATL stayed relatively weak alongside the oil trade. I initially shorted it when USO looked weak but took it off when crude failed to follow through.

Later I re-shorted it as oil rolled over again, but the stock never really accelerated lower so I covered when it stopped making progress.

Swings

-Started a swing long in UAMY. It’s a critical minerals name breaking out of a small range after holding a higher low on the daily. Looking for continuation if the breakout holds.

Current holdings: EQT UAMY

Takeaways

The good trades came from waiting for clean triggers — especially on ATPC and PLTR. Cutting early attempts quickly let me stay flexible.

The biggest miss was the second leg down in crude. When a theme like oil starts accelerating, the later move is often the biggest one. I need to stay engaged with the trend instead of stepping away too early.

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• Focused entirely on USO as crude reacted to the Iran war headlines.

• Lots of early cuts as price kept reclaiming levels.

• The real move came once USO finally broke lower and flushed to 114.

• Small bounce trade near the end of the day around the 100 level.

Trades I Took

Crude oil was the main focus today after the Iran war news pushed oil sharply higher overnight. By premarket the move was already starting to fade, so my plan was to short strength and look for a mean reversion from the extended gap.

I tried an early short in premarket with wider risk but cut it when price pushed back over VWAP. When crude rolled over again I reshorted and added as it broke the morning trend.

At the open I pressed the position and covered some on the first wash. I added back on the bounce but USO held stronger than expected and pushed over the opening range highs, forcing me out. I tried a few more shorts as it struggled around that level but kept having to cut as it reclaimed.

Then crude suddenly ripped higher on what I assume was news. I stepped aside but took some slippage getting out, trying to exit around 120 and getting filled closer to 121.

After that push, USO failed to break premarket highs and rolled back over. I got short again and added as it started forming lower highs and lower lows, though it kept reclaiming levels and forcing more risk management.

Eventually the breakdown finally stuck. Once USO held lower it accelerated through lod and flushed to around 114 where I took meaningful covers. I closed the rest of the position around noon.

Later in the afternoon USO struggled to bounce and drifted back toward the lows. I grabbed a small scalp after Trump comments suggesting the war could end soon but the move went way further than I expected.

Near the end of the day it looked like capitulation into the 100 area. I tried the long a couple times and finally caught a bounce that mostly offset the earlier cuts.

Swings

Huge undercut and reclaim day on SPY and QQQ. Bull market might be back on. Will look to get more active in swing trading.

Current holdings: EQT

Takeaways

This was a very news-driven tape and you had to be on your toes. Oil had a clear theme but the intraday structure kept reclaiming levels before the breakdown finally came.

The best decision was sticking with the short idea until it worked. The miss was not pressing the afternoon short after Trumps comments.

Market Recap

This was a war week, and everything else was background noise. US and Israel launched strikes on Iran starting last Saturday, Iran retaliated across the Gulf, and within days the Strait of Hormuz went from the world’s most important oil chokepoint to a no-go zone. Zero crude or LNG transits on Sunday and Monday. Fifty-five fully loaded supertankers sat stranded in the Gulf by midweek. Kuwait declared force majeure. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery got hit by drones and went offline. Qatar shut down LNG production. ripped past $90 on Thursday for the first time since October 2023, up roughly 25% in four sessions, on track for the largest weekly percentage gain in at least two decades.

Citigroup estimated 7 to 11 million barrels per day temporarily removed from global supply. That’s not just a headline, that’s a regime change for energy markets. and were obvious beneficiaries, with CVX showing relative strength on Friday while nearly everything else bled.

Tanker names like and oil services like pulled back all week. On the other side of that trade, airlines got destroyed with and both down over 3% on Friday alone.

The S&P 500 dropped about 1.3% on Friday alone to close at 6,740, and the breadth numbers told the real story: 59% of components were sitting at five-day new lows while only 8% made new highs. The Nasdaq fell 1.5% Friday and gave back everything from Wednesday’s bounce. The week had a choppy rhythm to it. Monday gapped down hard on the Iran news, Wednesday rallied on a brief “economic resilience” narrative, and then Thursday and Friday sold off as oil kept screaming higher and the February jobs report came in at negative 92,000 versus expectations of positive 59K.

Defense names soaked up the fear bid, with spiking nearly 6% intraday Monday on the classic war rotation, though it’s still down 18% year to date and just confirmed a death cross. beat earnings by a mile, 51% EPS beat, and barely got a sustained reaction because nobody cared about cybersecurity margins when crude is repricing the entire market. Meanwhile dropped a $2 billion investment into for AI optical networking, sending it up 10% Monday, but even that got swallowed by the broader risk-off.

Crypto, semis, and high-beta growth all got hit. down 5.5%, down 4.5%, Bitcoin back to $67K.

Heading into next week, there’s really only one question: does the Hormuz disruption persist or start to de-escalate? Israel struck Tehran fuel storage terminals on Saturday and Trump promised to hit Iran “very hard” again, so the answer right now leans toward escalation. If crude holds above $90, expect continued rotation into energy and defense while growth and anything rate-sensitive stays under pressure.

Low-Float Small Caps

was a top gainer this week, ripping over 500% from $0.17 to a high of $1.33 on absolutely absurd volume, turning over nearly 2.5 billion shares against an 83.7 million share float. While it closed the week near $1.04, the move from sub-$0.20 was the kind of parabolic action that defines these cycles. also had a monster week, doubling off $10.70 and tagging nearly $30 before settling around $22.36, showing more staying power than most low-float runners tend to. ran 145% and actually held near highs, closing at $2.04 just under its $2.10 weekly peak. was another name that caught a bid, gaining 83% on 1.5 billion shares traded, though it gave back a decent chunk from its $2.50 high to close at $1.93.

On the other side, several names this week were textbook supply plays. is the poster child, ripping from $4.51 all the way to $10.40 intraday before round-tripping the entire move and closing at $4.55, basically unchanged on the week. ran a similar script, pushing to $4.77 before fading back to $2.92. gained 52% on the week but gave back significantly from its $2.43 high. and were the clean backside fades, dropping 33% and 22% respectively as prior momentum unwound.

Watchlist

- huge move in oil last week and starting to look extended, but momentum can carry this higher so it’s the main watch heading into Monday.

- bitcoin and crypto names tried to break out of their short term bases but quickly fell back into range, signaling weakness and no follow through.

/ - small cap oil names riding the crude move, watching for an open bias play if they gap with volume.

- headline prone market with the Iran situation still unfolding, expect another volatile week and vol names stay in play.

Upcoming Economic Events and Earnings

Tuesday 3/10 AH | ORCL Earnings | Impact: MED | stock is down 50% since Sept, big reaction either way could ripple through cloud/AI names

Wednesday 3/11 8:30 AM | February CPI | Impact: HIGH | the single biggest print of the week — expect wide spreads and whippy price action all morning, size accordingly

Thursday 3/12 8:30 AM | PPI | Impact: MED | day after CPI so market already has inflation context, but a surprise here can reignite vol heading into Friday’s PCE

Thursday 3/12 AH | ADBE Earnings | Impact: HIGH | sets tone for Friday open in tech/growth, elevated vol in software names

Friday 3/13 8:30 AM | Core PCE + Q4 GDP (2nd est) + UMich Sentiment | Impact: HIGH | triple data dump at open — PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, GDP revision, and first sentiment read since the Iran conflict started. Messy open guaranteed.

Geopolitical overlay all week: the US-Iran conflict is the wildcard that overrides everything. Energy names especially volatile, and any headline can blow up a clean setup mid-session.

Happy trading!

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