• NBIS was the clear A+ setup with strong momentum and clean execution.

• AKAN had the right mean reversion thesis but was too spready and low quality.

Trades I Took

NBIS
NBIS gapped up in a strong market, held its pullback, and looked ready to reclaim the prior day’s weakness, so I got long on the opening range break. It worked almost immediately, and I scaled out into strength before trailing the final piece into 155 for one of the cleanest trades of the day.

AKAN
AKAN was gapping up on d3 of its run since breaking out, making is an appealing mean reversion short, but despite multiple good short entries, the stock’s low liquidity, wide spreads, and constant violent reversals made it frustrating and difficult to manage. Even when the thesis was right, it reinforced that these low-float names often create unnecessary stress compared to cleaner setups elsewhere.

Swings and Other Notable Mentions

Current holdings: BE RKLB UAMY

Takeaways

Today was a strong reminder that not all valid setups are worth trading. Cleaner large-cap momentum names like NBIS continue to offer better execution, less emotional drain, and more consistency than volatile small-cap squeezes like AKAN.

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• Tough day where nearly every breakout or momentum setup failed.

• MRAM, GLXY, CRWV, NVDL, and AKAN all lacked follow-through despite solid initial ideas.

• Main win was strong risk management by keeping losses controlled in frustrating conditions.

• Started a swing in RKLB at the open.

Trades I Took

MRAM
MRAM was the main focus early, gapping 37% on earnings and breaking to fresh highs. I came in looking for continuation through 20, but the stock never developed real momentum and chopped sideways all session. I took multiple small attempts, but it was just one of those names with no real expansion.

GLXY
GLXY had a clean breakout setup on the daily chart, but like MRAM, it had no follow-through. More small cuts on failed strength. Looks like its working in afterhours now.

CRWV
I tried CRWV on a midday VWAP breakout over 116, looking for momentum continuation, but it failed quickly. Another example of breakout conditions just not being there today.

NVDL
Nvidia sold off hard into support, so I used NVDL to play for a bounce. The turn initially looked promising, but the bounce was weak and couldn’t even reclaim VWAP. I trimmed some, rebid, then stopped the rest when continuation failed.

AKAN
I took a couple small short attempts on AKAN as a multi-day extended runner, but the low-volume, spready action made it tough. Not really my ideal setup.

Swings

RKLB - Started a swing long at the open.

Current holdings: BE MU RKLB UAMY

Takeaways

Today was frustrating, but the biggest win was keeping losses small while conditions were clearly difficult. Breakouts and momentum trades simply weren’t sticking, and forcing size would have made things worse. Main focus tomorrow is staying patient and pressing harder only when market conditions actually support momentum.

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Current swings: BE MU UAMY

• Caught a quick SOXL rebound by shorting SOXS after an opening flush reclaim.

• TQQQ short thesis failed as tech held support and bounced.

• XE held key IPO support and offered a solid early breakout, but momentum faded fast.

• Slow day overall

Trades I Took

SOXS (SOXL bounce trade)
SOXL came in heavily sold on broader tech weakness after the WSJ/OpenAI revenue miss narrative pressured semis. After a heavy pre-market selloff, it flushed under lows at the open but quickly reclaimed, setting up a simple bounce thesis. I expressed that by shorting SOXS on the opening range break, caught the fast move lower, locked profits quickly, and moved on.

TQQQ
I attempted a short on TQQQ looking for broader market weakness to continue and push price down into the daily 10 EMA. The setup never fully broke down though, as support held and buyers stepped in. Once it became clear the weakness wasn’t following through, I moved on rather than pressing the trade.

XE
XE gapped down but held its IPO support level, which immediately made it more interesting on the long side if buyers could defend. I waited for confirmation, added on the high-of-day breakout, and sold strength into the initial push. Once momentum completely faded and it lost VWAP midday, I closed the rest.

Swing Trades

-Stopped out of NBIS; sold some BE on this afterhours earnings drive

Current holdings: BE MU UAMY

Takeaways

Today was a good example of adapting to what price action actually gives rather than forcing bigger narratives. SOXS was a clean tactical bounce trade, while XE showed that even solid setups can lose steam quickly. Main focus tomorrow is continuing to capitalize on early momentum while staying sharp about fading follow-through.

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• Nailed the SOXL short as semis finally pulled back after becoming stretched.

• XE offered solid intraday momentum with multiple attempts before the real breakout came late day.

• USEG was a quick scalp on weak price action.

Trades I Took

SOXL
Semiconductors looked overextended after Friday’s Intel-driven gap, so I came in short biased looking for simple mean reversion. I built into a pre-market short, added at the open, and caught a sharp flush as the trade worked quickly. After covering some into weakness, I got one more add before the breakdown really accelerated.

XE
XE was a recent IPO in the nuclear energy theme showing strength over IPO highs. I caught the opening range breakout for a solid move into pre-market highs, scaled profits, and stopped the rest at breakeven after momentum faded. Multiple later attempts were choppy, but the real breakout finally came late day over 34.5, which I’m holding overnight.

USEG
USEG, oil and gas name, had decent news but price action was weak from the start. I shorted the failed strength, took a quick scalp, and moved on once volatility dried up.

Swings

Current swings: BE, MU, NBIS, UAMY

Takeaways

The best trades often come from simple themes executed well. SOXL was clean because the broader setup was obvious, while XE reinforced the importance of staying persistent but controlled in strong names. Going forward, I want to keep prioritizing clear thematic setups while avoiding overtrading midday chop.

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• I leaned short on TQQQ looking for a market pullback after 13 straight green days.

• I stayed cautious with the psychedelic names because of the weekend catalyst, but ENVB still showed enough weakness to short.

• Good reminder that theme matters, but price action matters more.

Trades I Took

TQQQ
Futures sold off overnight on news out of the strait, but with the market still extended after 13 straight up days, I took a pre-market starter short in TQQQ against Friday’s lower high looking for a simple pullback. Around 10:45, news hit and helped speed up the flush, so I took covers into the drop and trailed the rest for a solid Monday morning trade.

ENVB
ENVB was gapping up 129% on the psychedelic theme after the weekend news, so I came in thinking I would probably avoid forcing shorts in that group. But the price action was weak enough to override the headline, and I was able to stay short and keep recycling it lower into the close.

Swings

Current holdings: RKLB WULF BE

Takeaways

Today was a good reminder to keep the thesis simple and let the chart do the talking. TQQQ was the cleaner higher timeframe idea, and ENVB was a good example of following weakness even when the news looked strong. For tomorrow, the focus is the same: trust price action first and do not force trades just because the theme is active.

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• The Nasdaq had only ever strung together a 12-day winning streak three times in its entire history, with never a 13th, so I came in short via TQQQ expecting a mean reversion. The market made history instead.

• XNDU was a thesis carry from yesterday - waited for it to get tight and break under $35, then sized in for a great move all the way to $28.

• EFOI was the top gapper where I tried the long side first off the $7 level, then flipped short when it made a lower high.

• Trimmed more of the RKLB swing and closed MU/ARM for a small gain, looking to reload on pullbacks.

Trades I Took

TQQQ

The Nasdaq had only ever hit a 12-day winning streak three times in its entire history, and had never once gone 13. I came in short via TQQQ expecting that streak to finally crack, but the market double-bottomed intraday, held higher time frame opening range lows, and just kept grinding. The thesis isn’t dead, just wrong today, and I’ll be watching for the same setup on Monday.

XNDU

I carried a short on XNDU from yesterday and held a small overnight piece, cutting it pre-market when the stock bounced and retested $40. The thesis was still intact, so I waited for it to get tight and resolve, sized in under $35, and got a great move all the way down to $28.

EFOI

EFOI was a D1 gapper up close to 200%, and I tried the long side first off the $7 halt level looking for a continuation squeeze higher, but when it failed and made a lower high off the $8.50s I flipped short. From there I recycled around a core on the way down to $6 and kept trading it short on bounces into the close.

Swings / Watch List

Closed some more of the RKLB swing. Also sold the MU and ARM positions for a small gain and will look to re-enter on a pullback if the setup is there.

Current holdings: RKLB WULF

Tomorrow’s Focus

Monday, watch the market closely for the mean reversion that didn’t come today, since the thesis is still valid even if the timing was off.

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• XNDU was the top watch, bad first entry at open but caught it twice for solid moves

• MYSE faded cleanly off an AI rebrand narrative, took it from 4.50 down to 3.50

• BIRD followed through on the backside with multiple entries throughout the day

• CAR did what it does, cut break even;

• Macro shorts through IONQ and AMD did not work

Trades I Took

XNDU

Quantum stock in the middle of a big multi-day run, gapping up in premarket, so the short thesis was obvious. Got stopped out on a bad first entry at the open, reshorted the failed breakout, and caught it again in the afternoon off a lower high for two solid moves. Swinging some overnight.

MYSE

AI rebrand narrative gapper, almost identical to what BIRD ran on the day before, but with BIRD already fading hard I did not think the sympathy name had the same fuel. Waited for the break under 4.50, caught it down to 3.50, and left it alone.

BIRD

Yesterday’s name, still fading, and the premarket bounce back into the prior day’s major pivot at 16.30 was a clean level to lean on for the short. Multiple entries throughout the day, all working, and it just kept grinding lower.

CAR

Lower highs into a clean break under 380 looked like a real setup for once. It did its signature V-shaped rebound anyway, cut it near break even, squeezed to new highs, closed at the highs.

IONQ

Tried to use it as a vehicle to express a broader NASDAQ pullback thesis when the market looked shaky around noon. It gave me one quick move to VWAP before instantly reclaiming, so I cut it and moved on.

AMD

Same macro pullback idea, shorting under VWAP anticipating follow-through on what looked like early weakness on the QQQ. Market held up completely, AMD broke out strong, and in hindsight it was a great long setup, not a short.

Swings

Trimmed some RKLB to lock in a piece on this strength.

Current swing holdings: ARM, MU, RKLB, and WULF. RKLB has been one of the better swing trades I’ve caught in a while, and the move is just getting started…

Takeaways

The XNDU and BIRD trades worked because the setups were clear and I respected both entries and exits. The ones that didn’t work, IONQ, AMD, and CAR, either failed to confirm or reversed fast, and I cut all of them without much damage. The market is extended here after a straight-line run to new 52-week highs and I do think it wants to breathe, but expressing that idea through individual names is tricky when the big caps are still holding up. Better to wait for the clean trigger than force it.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Stay patient with quantum names if they stay in play and don’t force a macro pullback trade when the individual setups aren’t confirming it.

Question for Readers

BIRD was on absolutely everyone’s radar yesterday, non-traders included, and that kind of mainstream attention usually signals the move is close to running out. Do you find that extreme public attention on a name makes you more or less aggressive fading it?

Thanks for reading!

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• BIRD gapped 170% premarket on an AI compute pivot announcement and proposed 50M convertible raise

• Scalped both sides in premarket before stepping away from the desk for the first hour

• Caught the 13.5 breakout on return, scaled out along the squeeze into $20 while it ran to $24

• Traded both sides the rest of the day, catching a second long leg from $18 to $22 before getting trailed out

Trades I Took

BIRD

This one had a setup I don’t see every day. A distressed shoe company announcing a pivot to AI compute with a proposed 50M convertible raise sounds absurd on paper, but distressed low float stocks in a hot theme can produce outlier moves, and AI compute is about as hot as it gets right now. The fact that the raise still needs a shareholder vote added fuel for a potential squeeze since shorts are fighting both the theme and the uncertainty.

I scalped it long and short in premarket, knowing I wouldn’t be back at my desk for the first hour of market open.

When I came back, BIRD was sitting near $14 in the upper part of its range. I got long the 13.5 breakout and caught what turned into an epic squeeze, scaling out along the way. I sold the rest around $20, thinking that was a reasonable spot. It went to $24, up almost 1000% on the day.

After it topped out at $24, I went to work on the backside with a few short scalps. When it held the $16.30 pivot and double bottomed, the chart was telling me it might want to build for another leg higher, so I flipped long again around $18 and caught the move to $22, scaling out on the way up. It eventually stuffed and couldn’t make new highs, and I got trailed out as it lost momentum.

I made a few more attempts at a potential end-of-day squeeze on lighter size, but it settled into a tight range and nothing materialized. Grabbed a couple more short scalps after the close. In afterhours it reclaimed the 16.30 pivot and I scaled long once more and caught the push to $20.

Takeaways

Today required real-time flexibility. I don’t normally trade this way, but the specific circumstances of this stock called for a different approach, and I adapted. The range it gave all day was exceptional for both sides, and the key was recognizing that early and staying willing to trade it rather than forcing my usual framework onto an unusual situation. Sometimes the most disciplined thing you can do is recognize when the rules need to bend. This is why I call it the art of trading. Not everything can be automated.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Stay willing to adapt to what the market is giving rather than forcing a style onto a setup that doesn’t fit it.

Question for Readers

When a stock hands you a massive winner and you sell too early, how do you think about it mentally , is leaving money on the table a mistake, or just part of trading with a plan?

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• ROLR: shorted the gap-up failure on recycled news, caught a clean multi-leg fade

• RMSG: messy day 2 chop, got in and out twice

• CAR: faked every breakdown and closed above 400

• USO: caught the early washout, covered before bounce, went sideways in the afternoon

Trades I Took

ROLR

Top gapper of the day at 100%, driven by a crypto.com partnership announcement that turned out to be the exact same news from January. It spiked off the open, quickly rolled, and I got short, added on the bounce, and caught a clean multi-leg fade through mid-day into the close. Best trade of the day.

RMSG

Day 2 gap-up setup after a 475% move yesterday on 400M shares. Only gapping 4-5%, which tells you everything you need to know. When a stock does that kind of volume on day 1, it hits every scanner in the market and draws in all sorts of participants who make the setup messy and unpredictable. That’s exactly what happened. It chopped, faked moves in both directions, and never gave a clean continuation. I was able to stay somewhat nimble.

CAR

I had basically decided this ticker was off my screens, then tried a stab at 341 anyway thinking the daily range expansion plus lower-low was worth the risk. It faked every breakdown, trapped more shorts, and closed above 400. Just adding more to the CAR loss bucket.

USO

Oil was forming a bear flag with a big lower high on the daily, I was looking for a continuation day. I got short pre-market and added at the open when it broke under yesterday’s lows and confirmed the trend line break. I covered everything into the early flush near 123-124, left it alone on the bounce, and tried a couple more times in the afternoon for another leg that never came. Still happy with the trade overall.

Swings

Current holdings: RKLB ARM

Tomorrow’s Focus

If CAR shows a real daily bar break or first red day, I’ll consider it. Until then, it’s off the screen for good.

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• USO gapped up on Iran/US talks falling through, shorted the lower high

• RCT top gapper, trapped longs above pre-market highs, joined the sellers

• SKYQ extended oil name, waited for crude to confirm, shorted the trend down

Trades I Took

USO

Oil gapped up hard on the Iran/US negotiation breakdown, and I got short pre-market near the open looking for a lower high on the daily. I caught a solid wash early, held a portion through the reclaim with a wide HOD stop, and covered more when it eventually made new lows later in the day, closing the gap.

RCT

RCT was the top gapper this morning, so I gave it room to show its hand before it tried to push above pre-market highs, failed, and trapped a wave of longs. I joined the sellers on the bounces and covered the majority of the position into the wash below $1.

SKYQ

SKYQ had already run hard on Friday and gapped up again today, so I waited for oil to confirm weakness before committing, then got short on pops once SKYQ started trending down off the open after a big shakeout. I added on the range break below low of day and rode it back to the green-to-red level.

Takeaways

Patience was the common thread today. On SKYQ especially, waiting for oil to confirm weakness before committing saved me from a potentially painful early entry. The RCT trade was a reminder that top gappers on Monday mornings often need more time to setup vs taking the first entry. And with USO, holding a portion through the noise with a clear stop rather than getting fully shaken out ended up being the right call.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Watch whether oil continues lower or finds support and reclaims, because that context will dictate whether any of these names are worth revisiting or if the move is largely done.

Question for Readers

On a trade like USO where you get your initial cover but then watch it run back to the open before eventually working again, do you tend to hold the core and wait it out or would you rather clear the position and re-enter fresh if it sets up again?

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• AIXI was the prior day’s runner and gapped up again, offering a short setup that never cooperated across multiple attempts

• CETX was the top D1 gapper, faded clean off the open

• CAR (Avis) broke down under VWAP for a fast wash, but the bounce ran too far and I had to cut the add-back

• Rough day on AIXI offset by solid execution on CETX

Trades I Took

AIXI

AIXI was the runner from yesterday, gapping up again this morning and looking like a textbook setup for a fade. I got short in the morning, but it quickly reclaimed and held $1, so I stopped out.

In the afternoon it started printing what looked like a top and then a lower high, so I got short again. We were still above VWAP though, and the breakdown never came. It reclaimed a second time right before an absolutely nasty squeeze from around $1.50 to $2.70, and luckily I was out just before.

The price action the rest of the day was pretty bad. I kept poking around trying to catch the fade, but honestly the A grade trade had long passed.

CETX

CETX was the top D1 gapper on the session. One thing that gave me some caution was how tight and orderly the pre-market run looked, which usually signals sustained momentum rather than an immediate fade. Because of that I kept my initial short as just a starter off the open.

It couldn’t reclaim, stayed weak, and I kept adding as it worked in my favor. Caught the wash, and it continued fading through most of the morning before going sideways for the afternoon. Clean execution on this one.

CAR

CAR (Avis), a name everyone knows, had been extending higher for multiple days in a row before pushing further off today’s open. That kind of multi-day extension is exactly what I look for on the short side.

I shorted as it broke below the range and under VWAP and caught a fast wash down into the previous high of day, where I covered about half the position. As it bounced back into VWAP I added that half back, but the bounce kept going and I had to cut the whole thing. Frustrating in the moment, but it was the right call since CAR continued trending higher after that, which actually makes the setup look even better for another attempt if the conditions set up again.

Swings

Current holdings: RKLB

Takeaways

AIXI was a case study in knowing when to walk away. I kept trying to force a trade on a ticker that had moved well outside my system’s sweet spot, and it cost me repeatedly. CETX reminded me what disciplined execution looks like when I let the trade come to me and add to a winner. The lesson isn’t new, but AIXI good reminder on these high volume multi day moves.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Stop re-entering a trade once the price action has clearly moved past your setup’s range.

Question for Readers

With AIXI, I kept coming back for “one more try” even after it was obvious the setup had gotten away from me. Do you have a rule for how many attempts you allow yourself on the same ticker before you call it done for the day?

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• Shorted USO into the oil gap-up, got chopped on both sides

• CYCN gap-down short kept failing, low-quality idea

• COCP short worked briefly in premarket, re-entered after open for a shallow fade

• Bad stock selection day, too much forcing on low-reward setups

Trades I Took

USO

Oil was gapping up huge overnight after Trump’s address signaled no de-escalation anytime soon, and folks on Twitter were pointing out this was a fat tail event for anyone trading Brent/WTI spreads. I tried catching the top in USO thinking it was going to set up some incredible big opportunity on the short side.

Instead it just chopped me up. I caught the intraday news panic to make some back, but then it V-shaped right back and I ended up giving a big chunk of that back again. Classic case of forcing a thesis onto a name that wasn’t ready to roll over.

CYCN

This was the name from yesterday that had good news and was gapping down today. I tried to short the breakdown, but it held, and I kept trying. Such a low reward trade, and I don't know why I was even messing with it. This is the same exact thing as yesterday on ELAB, a low-quality idea where I'm trying to make something work and end up wasting energy in terrible low-liquidity price action.

COCP

This was the isolated small-cap gapper that wasn’t tied to oil. It’s a biotech company up on an FDA fast track designation, which is essentially meaningless as a catalyst. I got short in premarket and it worked briefly, but it reclaimed and pushed higher at the open to stop me out. It ticked over pre-market highs and then sold off hard, so I joined the selling and shorted again. I was only able to capture a shallow fade as it went sideways most of the afternoon.

Takeaways

Bad stock selection was the theme today. USO was a thesis trade that turned into a meat grinder, and CYCN was a low-quality gap-down short that I should have never touched. COCP was the cleanest idea on the board and even that only gave a shallow fade.

Tomorrow’s (Monday) Focus

Kill the gap-down shorts after a one-day run. If it looks like CYCN or ELAB, walk away.

Question for Readers

Have you ever had a day where you knew the best trade on the board (COCP) but spent most of your energy on the worst one (USO)? How do you catch yourself before the damage is done?

Markets closed tomorrow. Have a great weekend!

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• Shorted USO on the oil gap down, took multiple cuts as it held support

• Shorted ELAB twice, stopped out both times including a surprise halt squeeze

• Scalped CYCN short and long off the extension, then overstayed on a short and got squeezed in afterhours

• Rough day across the board with no clean winners

Trades I Took

USO

Oil was gapping down this morning and I shorted USO looking for continuation lower. It held support multiple times and I kept taking cuts, chopping myself up on what turned into a frustrating back and forth.

ELAB

ELAB was a pseudo multi-day runner and I took a short after it rejected VWAP off the open. I got stopped out of that first attempt, then re-shorted as it failed to continue higher. The second entry looked better but ELAB consolidated under VWAP all afternoon and then halted out of nowhere, stopping me out again.

After the halt it squeezed higher violently. Crazy games on that one, and a good reminder that multi-day runners can do irrational things when you least expect it.

CYCN

CYCN was the small-cap gapper of the day, and it actually had legitimate news behind it with some big investors raising a couple hundred million dollars. I identified it early as a quick scalp type of vehicle given the momentum profile.

I shorted it off the extension for a scalp, then flipped long for a quick scalp on the other side, and both of those worked as intended. The problem came when I switched gears and got short looking for the bigger fade, even though I’d already recognized this was quick in-and-out price action. I held the short into the close and got squeezed out for a loss as it spiked in afterhours.

Takeaways

The CYCN situation is the one that stings the most because I correctly read the type of price action and context it was and then ignored my own read. When you identify something as a scalp vehicle, trade it like a scalp vehicle. Switching to a longer hold mid-trade because you want the bigger move is how you turn a decent day into a rough one.

Across the board today, I was fighting trades that didn’t want to work instead of recognizing early that the setups weren’t cooperating.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Match the trade plan to the price action type I identify, and when I call something a scalp, hold myself to that.

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• Best trade of the day was VRAX. Clean small cap fade and I stayed active around the position well.

• USO took a couple tries, but the original idea was right and the real move came once the news and technical setup lined up.

• GLD worked well on the long side. I managed it fine, but missed the better add later in the day.

Trades I Took

USO

USO (Oil) was getting extended and had been up four days in a row so I was looking for a mean reversion setup. It was gapping down in pre-market even with more war-related headlines overnight.

I shorted in pre-market, added a bit more after the open, and covered some on the first wash below the pre-market range. Then oil bounced and stopped me out, but I still thought the thesis was intact.

A few hours later, fresh headlines hit saying Iran’s president was ready to end the war. Markets ripped, oil sold off hard, and I was able to jump on the breaking news candle and catch the big flush. The best trades are when the news and chart align.

VRAX

VRAX was a low-float biotech under $1, up on ISO news, and it fit the profile of a historical fader. I’ve traded this ticker a bunch in the past. I started short in pre-market and kept recycling around a core as it started to fade.

At the open I pressed it again and kept reshoring each lower high. That let me stay with the move without overcomplicating it, and I caught the big wash pretty well. I covered most of it there and this ended up being one of the cleanest trades of the day.

GLD

GLD (Gold) was breaking over a clean range on the daily after it found a potential short term bottom last week. I got long on the break over open range highs and got steady upside follow-through. I scaled out in pieces as it trended up the entire day.

One spot I could have added more was when it consolidated above VWAP and broke higher again. Solid trade, but I didn’t maximize it.

Swings

I bought RKLB for a swing. It was bouncing off the 200-day moving average and I liked the mix of theme strength plus some possible upcoming catalysts.

Current holdings: RKLB

Other Notable Mentions

KIDZ was the other main small cap gapper and I missed it. It gave a clean fade and I just was not involved.

Takeaways

Today was a good reminder that the thesis can still be right even if the first entry is not. USO took a few tries, but staying flexible let me catch the real move when the headline finally confirmed the setup. VRAX was the cleanest execution of the day. Going into tomorrow, I want to stay sharp on intraday adds in winners because I left some extra on the table in GLD.

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• No trades all morning, nothing worth forcing on a Monday

• Small caps in play (ELAB, ASTC, BFRG) but all low quality with no clean setups

• Shorted NVDA on the afternoon breakdown below the low of day range, covered at the close

• Markets still weak with no capitulation washout yet

Trades I Took

NVDA

I didn’t touch anything all morning. It was Monday, the setups weren’t there, and I wasn’t about to force something just to be active. A few small caps were floating around (ELAB, ASTC, BFRG) but they were all low quality and none of them offered anything clean, so I was happy to sit on my hands.

In the afternoon, NVDA started setting up for a breakdown. It had been trading on the lower end of its range all morning, sitting under the big daily pivot at 170 and below Friday’s low. All the confluence was lined up, so when it broke the low of day range I shorted it and caught some continuation to the downside. Covered it at the close.

Takeaways

Patience worked for me today. It’s been a long time since I actually sat out the entire opening session. Monday mornings don’t owe you anything, and forcing action on low quality setups is how you start the week in a hole. The NVDA short was a good reminder that when the setup comes to you with real confluence, the execution feels easy.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Keep the same patience from today and only engage when the confluence is obvious.

Question for Readers

How do you stay engaged and sharp on days when there’s nothing worth trading all morning? Do you step away from screens or stay glued in?

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• Shorted NVDA around the $170 level, covered in pieces as the breakdown lacked follow-through

• Caught a quick long on VXX off the open as the market sold off

• Shorted DXYZ anticipating a gap fill on failed breakout momentum, covered into the move

• Skipped the small-cap runners (VSA, ARTL, ONCO) due to high locate costs

Trades I Took

NVDA

NVIDIA was gapping down with the broader market, and there’s a huge daily pivot and support level right at $170. The thesis was if that level breaks, we could see real weakness for a clean short setup. I took some short in pre-market anticipating the break.

At the open I added into the breakdown and caught a nice move and recycled the position a bit but the weakness wasn’t as strong as I expected so I trailed out on the next bounce.

Later in the day, NVDA was trading back near the lows and consolidating. I got short again looking for the continuation breakdown since the markets were overall weak and grinding lower but it didn’t move much.

VXX

With the markets gapping down and selling off, the VIX was strong and VXX was breaking out over a big level. I got long off the open, sold some, and basically just took that first leg.

VXX pulled all the way back to the low of day, then rebounded back to highs, broke out, and pushed higher almost into $40 toward the close. In hindsight, I should have stuck with that idea longer because the move ended up being much bigger than what I captured.

DXYZ

DXYZ had been in play the last couple days trying to gain momentum off the upcoming SpaceX IPO. My thinking was that if it couldn’t break out the previous two days, then gapping down and breaking below those levels might trigger a breakdown and gap fill.

I got short right before the open anticipating the previous day low break, which we got. It traded down to basically fill the gap and I covered there, then kept a tight trail. Good trade overall because it went sideways the rest of the day, so the entry and exit were both clean.

Swings / Watch List

Sold/stopped out of all my swing trades. Tough conditions for any follow-through.

There were a ton of nano-float small-cap runners today: VSA, ARTL, and ONCO. All had super high locate costs so I ended up not trading any of them. ARTL gave a huge squeeze and then an afternoon fade that would have been a really nice spot. VSA did some crazy pre-market price action, spiking down and instantly reclaiming back up before they ended up just offering at the end of the day. ONCO had a big clear out at the open followed by a major sell-off the rest of the session with a great entry under $3.85. Tricky action all around in small caps, and while I missed some moves, I also avoided some serious headaches.

The broader market is setting up for a potential mean reversion bounce early next week. MSFT, META, and the big tech names are bleeding out heavily, down 3, 4, 5+ days in a row and closing at the lows on a Friday. That’s the kind of setup you want to see for a gap-down capitulation come Monday. Statistically, this is the worst start to the year historically for the S&P.

Takeaways

Today was about having the right ideas and managing them reasonably, even if I left some on the table. The NVDA thesis was correct, VXX was correct, DXYZ was correct. Execution was solid but not perfect. The VXX trade stings a little because the move was there and I only took the first piece. Sticking with winners when the thesis is playing out is something to keep working on.

Tomorrow’s (Monday) Focus

Watch for that Monday gap-down capitulation in big tech and be ready to flip long if we get the washout.

Happy Friday, hope everyone has a great weekend!

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• Longed DXYZ as a SpaceX IPO proxy, chopped around trying to get the entry right

• Shorted UGRO from premarket, covered the wash under 25, then re-shorted into a range that went nowhere

• Missed LNAI off the open but caught a short later when it bounced

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Trades I Took

DXYZ

This one has been gaining strength as a sympathy to the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and it gapped up yesterday before selling off hard. My thesis was that if it could reclaim that gap-up level, it had a shot at catching some momentum from buyers still looking for SpaceX exposure.

I started a long position in premarket but ended up chopping around a bit. I stopped out before I actually hit my real stop level, then got back in. Not my cleanest execution, stopping out early and then re-entering is the kind of thing that turns a fine idea into unnecessary damage.

UGRO

UGRO blew everyone out yesterday into the close and again in after hours, pushing all the way up to around 56 before selling off. I wasn’t around for the after-hours move unfortunately, but it was gapping down this morning and the daily chart still looked like it had room to go lower.

I started short in premarket and added more right before the open, then covered everything on the wash under 25. That initial move worked well. I shorted it a couple more times through the day, but it was stuck in a range and I was trying to squeeze more out of a name that needed time to digest. Looking at the daily, it still hasn’t even printed a red day yet, so the thesis might still be right, but forcing it in a consolidation range wasn’t the move.

LNAI

This was the top gapper on the day, up 124%. I wanted to get short on a bounce off the open, but it just fell apart immediately with no bounces at all, just a straight drop. I couldn’t get involved the way I wanted. Later in the day it finally bounced a bit and I put some shares on short since it was clearly dilutive and didn’t have a real bid underneath it.

Takeaways

Today was a lot of activity spread across a lot of names, and the results were mixed. The UGRO re-shorts after the initial cover and the DXYZ chop are the kind of trades that eat into a day that should have been cleaner. The initial UGRO short was a good read. The lesson is that follow-up attempts to squeeze more out of names that needed time were where the edge got dull.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Take the first good trade in a name and be more selective about going back to the well.

Question for Readers

When you cover a short that’s already moved big, how do you decide whether to take the money and walk away versus holding for more?

• Shorted RMSG on a D1 gap-up

• UGRO squeezed hard, caught a small piece of the fade

• Small shorts on USO for a breakeven

• Bought WULF as a swing position

Trades I Took

RMSG

D1 gapper up 100% on MOU news, but I didn’t think the news really mattered and the company is out of cash. Took a starter short after its morning push.

I trimmed a little early, added back, and caught the wash. Later it started consolidating under VWAP, which made me think it could squeeze like UGRO on Monday, so I stopped out of the remaining short on the reclaim. I tried a quick long, sold when that failed, then got short again on the next wash. Tough price action, but manageable.

UGRO

Another wild move. It looked weak early and then started trending up in pre-market, which should have been a warning sign. I shorted the breakdown off the open but it consolidated, made a higher low just under VWAP, and broke out again, so I covered.

Then it put in a massive squeeze all the way to $16. At that point it was extended enough to look for a short, and I caught a small piece of the fade, but it didn’t even reach VWAP before holding and reclaiming. I stopped out, and that stop would have been the perfect long entry as it halted up. No one could have guessed what it would do after that. Hitting $50 now in afterhours. Just a monster move.

This is why risk management is THE most important thing in trading (especially small caps). You let your guard down for a second and your account could be gone.

USO

I tried a couple small shorts looking for breakdown continuation, but it bounced right away so I took it off.

Swings

Long WULF as a new swing position. Sold some GLW.

Current holdings: EQT GLW WULF

Takeaways

The low float names this week have been brutal. They’re either squeezing out relentlessly or putting in these last-ditch afternoon spikes that clear everyone out before reversing. The RMSG starter was technically outside my PMH rules, and even though it worked, that’s a habit worth correcting. All you can really do in weeks like this is manage risk and not let frustration push you into forcing setups.

Tomorrow’s Focus

Continue to stick to system confirmation rules, no matter how tempting the starter looks.

Question for Readers

When a name is consolidating right under VWAP and it reminds you of a previous ticker that squeezed, do you trust the pattern recognition and bail, or do you stick with your thesis and hold?

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• Shorted PAVS twice, stopped out both times, then it halted down on offering news minutes later.

• Shorted UGRO on the opening range breakdown, covered for scratch.

• Attempted mean reversion longs on CRCL near 100, didn’t work, moved on.

• Being away from the desk cost me on two trades today

Trades I Took

PAVS

PAVS was the top gapper this morning after news yesterday that they’d terminated their $100 million ATM, though they still had dilution available through a $200 million shelf. It’s a historical fader, so I liked the short thesis, but there were some red flags.

I thought there was a decent chance it could roll over and potentially see an offering. I shorted the open, got stopped out quickly as it held, then re-entered when it pushed above pre-market highs and drifted back below.

Tried staying patient for the bigger move but got stopped out in the afternoon, and then almost immediately it double-topped and halted straight down on offering news. That one stings. The thesis was right, my system just didn’t survive the volatility.

UGRO

This was the big runner from yesterday afternoon and into after hours. This morning it was gapping up slightly and chopping sideways through all of pre-market, so when it failed and broke opening range lows I got short and added on the bounce. I was away from the desk with only a stop in, so I missed the wash down to the 6.50s where I should have been taking covers. However my targets for this setup were much lower.

CRCL

Circle was selling off hard, doing almost 3x its ATR on the day. I was looking for a mean reversion long bounce near 100 and tried a couple of times just above that level. It kept failing so I let it go. It eventually washed under 100 later in the afternoon and bounced from there. This isn’t really my typical trade, I’m not a parabolic bounce guy, but the opportunity looked clean enough to warrant the attempts. Small losses, no regrets on that one.

Swings

-Bought GLW

Current holdings: EQT GLW

Takeaways

Today was a lesson in desk time. The PAVS and UGRO theses were both solid, but being away meant I couldn’t manage either position properly. If I’m going to be away, I either need to skip the trade entirely or accept that stop-only management is going to cost me on days like this.

Question for Readers

How do you handle it when you know you’ll be away from the desk mid-trade? Do you skip the setup entirely, use passive targets, or just accept the stop risk and take the shot?

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