Daily Market Recap - 1/16/26
Patience Pays
TLDR
Stayed patient on the big small-cap gappers instead of rushing shorts.
SLV looked like it finally wanted to roll over, but the bounce stopped me out at breakeven.
IBRX didn’t cooperate yet. Took two clean attempts and stepped aside.
VERO and JFBR were the best trades of the day by waiting for confirmation instead of guessing the top.
Trades I Took
IBRX has been in a big multi-day move and was gapping up again. This isn’t a typical tiny float small cap. It has a market cap in the billions, which makes it trade slightly different, and makes this move even more significant. I was interested in it as a daily overextension short, basically looking for exhaustion after too much upside too fast.
I took a short in premarket on what looked like a backside bounce, it was working well off the open, but didn’t follow through and stopped me out. Just didn’t work. An hour later, after it made new overall highs, I tried again on the next short signal. Same result. This is still a valid setup, and glad to see it hold up into the close, but it needs more time. Hopefully another gap for a better setup next week.
Silver was gapping down again and grinding up intraday, which at this point almost feels routine. The setup quality has clearly degraded, but it pushed into prior resistance right out of the gate, which gave me a reason to try it one more time. I shorted into strength with a fairly wide stop, expecting acceleration if it finally cracked.
It started breaking down and speeding up, and for a moment it looked like this was finally the turn. I covered a quarter into that flush, but that ended up being the low. From there it bounced and eventually stopped me out at breakeven on the rest. Slightly frustrating, but execution-wise I’m fine with it. Took partials, protected the rest, and didn’t let it turn into a loser.
VERO was one of the main small-cap gappers in the morning and immediately started squeezing shorts. This week, getting involved too early in names like this (i.e. EVTV ROLR SPHL) has been a mistake, so I made a point not to rush it. I waited for it to top out and actually trigger a short signal.
Once it did, I put the trade on and kept it simple. Entry, stop, target. No micromanaging. I covered half into the first target and let the rest work into the close. Clean execution and exactly how I want to trade these when the cycle is hot.
JFBR followed a very similar script to VERO. Early squeeze, no reason to fight it. I sat on my hands until it clearly topped out and triggered. Same plan here: one shot only. If it didn’t work, I was ready to move on.
It did work. I covered half at the first target and the rest near the close. Happy to stack a couple wins on the short side after yesterday’s madness.
Swings
-Bought ALAB 0.00%↑ today as it’s curling up out of a base. This is a high growth AI/semiconductor-based connectivity company. Stop at today’s low.
-IREN 0.00%↑ continues to be strong, leading my swing basket.
Current holdings: ALAB BE IREN LEU RDW
(TQQQ calls I bought on Monday expired worthless. Will re-asses next week)
Takeaways
Patience made the difference today. The small-cap cycle is still punishing early shorts, and waiting for confirmation instead of trying to be a hero paid off. IBRX didn’t work, but risk was controlled and there was no emotional damage. The biggest lesson is to keep letting trades come to me, especially in hot environments, and stay disciplined with one clean attempt instead of overtrading.
P.S. SPHL 0.00%↑ closed down -60% today. Congrats to any shorts that caught it.