Daily Trading Recap - 3/2/26
Oil and Crypto
TLDR
Sector-wide oil gap up on U.S.–Iran escalation. No shorts at the open.
Trimmed EQT swing premarket. Shorted TMDE and BATL; mixed results.
Long HOOD worked well with crypto strength.
Got caught in the late-day oil headline spike and stopped on TMDE.
Trades I Took
TMDE 0.00%↑
Most of the small cap oil names gapped up huge overnight. I specifically did not want to step in short biased at 9:30AM. Monday morning, headline-driven, high emotion. That is how you get steamrolled.
After the first hour, TMDE showed real weakness. It failed to reclaim mid-morning levels and rolled over, so I got short looking for a second leg down. It flushed to 2.10 and I covered some into that wash.
TMDE reclaimed the lows and started pushing. I added some shares back but ended up puking the whole position as it sped up. My real stop should have been over 2.80. Instead, I top-ticked my covers and realized in real time that I had mismanaged the level. I re-shorted with the correct stop.
Later in the afternoon, around 3pm, news hit about the Strait of Hormuz potentially being closed and ships being targeted. Crude popped instantly and oil stocks ripped. That headline stopped me out of TMDE.
BATL 0.00%↑
BATL was the other active oil related small cap in play. It sold off from the open and then bounced into VWAP. Crude was weak at the time and I thought we’d get a second leg down, similar to what INDO had done.
I shorted after the VWAP rejection and the $10 whole dollar level. It looked good initially, but it held up and reclaimed 10, stopping me out.
The setup made sense but with the underlying bid in oil and potential for headline risk it just didn’t follow through. Good long in hindsight.
HOOD 0.00%↑
While oil was the obvious theme, the broader market ripped off the open. It went green quickly. Bitcoin was strong. VXX went red. Breadth was expanding.
I got long HOOD on a pullback after it broke out over high of day. Crypto strength plus improving market conditions was the main idea. If risk was back on, HOOD should participate.
It pushed nicely over the previous day high and I sold some into 79. I held the rest into the close and sold the remainder there.
Clean trade. Followed strength instead of fighting it.
AAOI 0.00%↑
Took a shot on a short at the low-of-day break. It immediately wicked back up and stopped me out. No follow through. Quick scratch.
Swings
-Got a gift of a gap up on EQT from the U.S.–Iran escalation. I used the premarket strength to sell more of my swing at 64.
-Bought a little bit of BE on the undercut and reclaim of the 20sma.
Current holdings: BE EQT GEVX
Takeaways
Easy in hindsight to say I should have just shorted the oil names off the open but I have a rule of letting the pent up volatility over the weekend trade out in the first hour. No reason to fight a news-driven Monday open.
Best trade was HOOD. I aligned with strength instead of forcing fades. On TMDE, the idea was good, but I got sloppy around my real stop level and then gave back mental edge by reacting instead of executing.
Main focus tomorrow: cleaner level definition and assume headline risk stays elevated as long as this Middle East situation is active. When everything is moving together, size and stops matter more than usual.