Daily Trading Recap - 3/9/26
All Eyes on Oil
TLDR
Focused entirely on USO as crude reacted to the Iran war headlines.
Lots of early cuts as price kept reclaiming levels.
The real move came once USO finally broke lower and flushed to 114.
Small bounce trade near the end of the day around the 100 level.
Trades I Took
Crude oil was the main focus today after the Iran war news pushed oil sharply higher overnight. By premarket the move was already starting to fade, so my plan was to short strength and look for a mean reversion from the extended gap.
I tried an early short in premarket with wider risk but cut it when price pushed back over VWAP. When crude rolled over again I reshorted and added as it broke the morning trend.
At the open I pressed the position and covered some on the first wash. I added back on the bounce but USO held stronger than expected and pushed over the opening range highs, forcing me out. I tried a few more shorts as it struggled around that level but kept having to cut as it reclaimed.
Then crude suddenly ripped higher on what I assume was news. I stepped aside but took some slippage getting out, trying to exit around 120 and getting filled closer to 121.
After that push, USO failed to break premarket highs and rolled back over. I got short again and added as it started forming lower highs and lower lows, though it kept reclaiming levels and forcing more risk management.
Eventually the breakdown finally stuck. Once USO held lower it accelerated through lod and flushed to around 114 where I took meaningful covers. I closed the rest of the position around noon.
Later in the afternoon USO struggled to bounce and drifted back toward the lows. I grabbed a small scalp after Trump comments suggesting the war could end soon but the move went way further than I expected.
Near the end of the day it looked like capitulation into the 100 area. I tried the long a couple times and finally caught a bounce that mostly offset the earlier cuts.
Swings
Huge undercut and reclaim day on SPY and QQQ. Bull market might be back on. Will look to get more active in swing trading.
Current holdings: EQT
Takeaways
This was a very news-driven tape and you had to be on your toes. Oil had a clear theme but the intraday structure kept reclaiming levels before the breakdown finally came.
The best decision was sticking with the short idea until it worked. The miss was not pressing the afternoon short after Trumps comments.
Nice job man, amazing how technicals and fundamentals/catalyst always seem to align by ‘coincidence’.