NVDA $170 Breakdown - Daily Trading Recap 3/27/26
NVDA VXX DXYZ
TLDR
Shorted NVDA around the $170 level, covered in pieces as the breakdown lacked follow-through
Caught a quick long on VXX off the open as the market sold off
Shorted DXYZ anticipating a gap fill on failed breakout momentum, covered into the move
Skipped the small-cap runners (VSA, ARTL, ONCO) due to high locate costs
Trades I Took
NVDA
NVIDIA was gapping down with the broader market, and there’s a huge daily pivot and support level right at $170. The thesis was if that level breaks, we could see real weakness for a clean short setup. I took some short in pre-market anticipating the break.
At the open I added into the breakdown and caught a nice move and recycled the position a bit but the weakness wasn’t as strong as I expected so I trailed out on the next bounce.
Later in the day, NVDA was trading back near the lows and consolidating. I got short again looking for the continuation breakdown since the markets were overall weak and grinding lower but it didn’t move much.
VXX
With the markets gapping down and selling off, the VIX was strong and VXX was breaking out over a big level. I got long off the open, sold some, and basically just took that first leg.
VXX pulled all the way back to the low of day, then rebounded back to highs, broke out, and pushed higher almost into $40 toward the close. In hindsight, I should have stuck with that idea longer because the move ended up being much bigger than what I captured.
DXYZ
DXYZ had been in play the last couple days trying to gain momentum off the upcoming SpaceX IPO. My thinking was that if it couldn’t break out the previous two days, then gapping down and breaking below those levels might trigger a breakdown and gap fill.
I got short right before the open anticipating the previous day low break, which we got. It traded down to basically fill the gap and I covered there, then kept a tight trail. Good trade overall because it went sideways the rest of the day, so the entry and exit were both clean.
Swings / Watch List
Sold/stopped out of all my swing trades. Tough conditions for any follow-through.
There were a ton of nano-float small-cap runners today: VSA, ARTL, and ONCO. All had super high locate costs so I ended up not trading any of them. ARTL gave a huge squeeze and then an afternoon fade that would have been a really nice spot. VSA did some crazy pre-market price action, spiking down and instantly reclaiming back up before they ended up just offering at the end of the day. ONCO had a big clear out at the open followed by a major sell-off the rest of the session with a great entry under $3.85. Tricky action all around in small caps, and while I missed some moves, I also avoided some serious headaches.
The broader market is setting up for a potential mean reversion bounce early next week. MSFT, META, and the big tech names are bleeding out heavily, down 3, 4, 5+ days in a row and closing at the lows on a Friday. That’s the kind of setup you want to see for a gap-down capitulation come Monday. Statistically, this is the worst start to the year historically for the S&P.
Takeaways
Today was about having the right ideas and managing them reasonably, even if I left some on the table. The NVDA thesis was correct, VXX was correct, DXYZ was correct. Execution was solid but not perfect. The VXX trade stings a little because the move was there and I only took the first piece. Sticking with winners when the thesis is playing out is something to keep working on.
Tomorrow’s (Monday) Focus
Watch for that Monday gap-down capitulation in big tech and be ready to flip long if we get the washout.
Happy Friday, hope everyone has a great weekend!