Sunday Review + Watchlist 1/18/26
Hot Small-Cap Cycle; Software Sells Off; Greenland Back In Focus
Market Recap
U.S. stocks took a breather last week, with the S&P 500 slipping about 0.4% and the Nasdaq down roughly 0.7% as both indexes eased just off recent highs. The standout was small caps: the Russell 2000 pushed to fresh records and extended its streak of outperformance, underscoring how much leadership has tilted toward the riskier end of the market.
Sector‑wise, software was hit hard as major names sold off on mounting concerns that new AI tools could disrupt existing business models, while semis and broader AI‑hardware plays held up better. Crude oil saw a sharp pickup in volatility around escalating Iran tensions, Trump’s renewed talk of tariffs on Greenland weighed on European markets, and silver ripped through the 90‑dollar mark as traders piled into precious‑metals exposure. Defense and space stocks were still very strong to end the week.
Small-caps were hot last week, with multiple low- and mid-float names pushing multiple 100%+, putting short sellers on defense and rewarding long sided traders. Being able to trade both sides is important for regimes like this. Most names offered clean long setups off the open and then some afternoon fades. EVTV and AHMA held up for multiple sessions. SPHL probably takes the prize for trickiest tape of the week, squeezing well past obvious levels before finally breaking, and on Friday the tone started to shift as SPHL gapped down and unwound its entire prior leg.
By the end of the week, the character of the runners started to look more two-sided again. VERO and JFBR both pushed nicely out of the gate but couldn’t sustain trend, selling off into the close and showing that extended names are finally vulnerable to full-session fades instead of grinding squeezes. For now the cycle still leans hot, but with Friday’s action showing more failed continuation and heavier end-of-day selling, the short side is starting to see better timing windows after the morning squeeze rather than getting steamrolled all week.
Watchlist
IBRX 0.00%↑ Extended multi-day run, up higher in afterhours, watching for a parabolic push and failed strength for a classic overextended short setup.
SLV 0.00%↑ Short thesis only improves futures stop “saving” it with the gap downs that just reverse back up. Need to see clear bear flag form near low of day and then breakdown on expanding volume.
EVTV 0.00%↑ Two‑day spike followed by three days of tight consolidation sets up a potential breakout continuation long over the recent range highs if volume confirms.
GEV 0.00%↑ Nice bounce off the 50‑day and reclaim of the prior $677 breakout level, ideally going sideways a few days above that level before a possible push back toward $700.
RDW 0.00%↑ Riding space‑sector momentum after positive European space developments, so looking for continuation.
CRML 0.00%↑ On side‑watch for a high‑volume breakout through recent resistance that could open a move into the $20s. Open to the short thesis if any major failed breakout.
LEU 0.00%↑ Bullish structure where another day or two of sideways action could set up a clean add on a push and hold over the 333 area.
