Sunday Review + Watchlist 3/15/26
The Week the Strait of Hormuz Changed Everything
Broad Market Recap
Oil dominated everything this week (again). Monday opened with a massive gap up in crude after Iran/oil escalation fears sent energy ripping and everything else scrambling, then reversed hard into the close after Trump announced the conflict was “over,” giving $SPY a bullish engulfing candle that felt like a gift.
That optimism didn’t last long and by Thursday the damage continued. Iran struck two oil tankers, crude surged roughly 10% on the session, and Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA called it the largest oil supply disruption on record. $SPY dropped about 1.5% on the day.
Friday offered no relief either, $SPY sold off to fresh YTD lows while $VIX stayed elevated near 27. On the week, $SPY finished down about -1.5%, $QQQ held up better at roughly negative -1%, and $IWM lost around -1.7%.
Pockets of strength were worth noting. $XLE was the only sector that really worked as oil producers caught a direct bid from crude pushing toward $100. $HIMS ripped about 44% Monday after Novo Nordisk dropped its patent lawsuit and signed a deal to distribute branded Wegovy through the telehealth platform, with 35.5% short interest adding squeeze fuel.
$NBIS showed real strength on news of a $2B $NVDA investment, and memory names like $MU and $SNDK held firm while most of tech bled.
Bitcoin and crypto were another relative strength pocket, quietly outperforming risk assets. Heading into next week, the $NVDA GTC Conference starts Monday, $META just reported Friday, and the oil situation remains fluid. Leadership is narrow and defensive, so until this Iran overhang clears, expect headline-driven chop to continue.
Low-Float Small Caps
$ACXP led the week, ripping ~180% on a 2M float with 161M shares traded, running from $1.38 to $6.30 before fading to $3.88. $ATPC showed a similar move on an even tighter 400K float, doubling from $2.13 to $6.30 and closing at $4.44. $BIAF gained ~110% on 261M volume but held up better than most on the backside, while $ROMA spiked from $3 to $8.57 before settling near $5.40.
Most other gappers round-tripped: $AZI hit ~0.90 then closed flat, $KALA ran to $0.51 before fading to $0.28, $ISPC gave back its gap from $0.44 to $0.28, and $VTAK ran to $2.25 but closed below open at $1.36. $INKT had the sharpest reversal, spiking to $16.93 before dumping to $9.74, while $BATL finished the week down ~25%. The weak low-float cycle continues, some solid short fades, but names like $BIAF show selectivity still matters.
Watchlist
USO: oil pushing back toward the highs, curious to see if it has another leg or if supply steps in early this week.
GLD: gold showing some notable weakness and starting to disconnect from the usual safe-haven flows, worth watching if that continues.
COIN: lost levels on friday but if it can somehow reclaim and hold, that sets up a clean momentum move back through the range.
SNDK: creeping toward highs and a few days of tightening would be ideal here, but this one doesn’t feel like it wants to wait around.
EONR: starting to get stretched up here, watching for any signs of exhaustion on the next push.
Upcoming Economic Events and Earnings
Wednesday 8:30 AM | February PPI | Impact: HIGH | inflation read drops right before FOMC — sets the mood for the whole day, expect whipsaw if hot
Wednesday 2:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision + Dot Plot | Impact: HIGH | rates expected unchanged but the dot plot and projections will rip or fade everything — nothing matters before 2 PM, size down until Powell’s done talking
Wednesday 2:30 PM | Powell Press Conference | Impact: HIGH | the real move happens here, not the statement — algo spikes on every sentence, untradeable for 30+ min
Wednesday AH | $MU Earnings | Impact: MED | bellwether semi — sets Thursday’s tone for NVDA/AMD/SMH, watch for gap-and-go or gap-and-fade at open
Friday all day | Quad Witching (Triple Witching) OpEx | Impact: MED | index options + futures + equity options all expire — erratic pinning action, inflated volume, weird moves into close
Wednesday is basically a minefield. PPI → FOMC → Powell → MU after hours. I’d circle that as the day to be most careful with size. The rest of the week is relatively clean.
Happy trading!