Thesis Trading - Daily Recap 3/31/26
USO GLD VRAX
TLDR
Best trade of the day was VRAX. Clean small cap fade and I stayed active around the position well.
USO took a couple tries, but the original idea was right and the real move came once the news and technical setup lined up.
GLD worked well on the long side. I managed it fine, but missed the better add later in the day.
Trades I Took
USO
USO (Oil) was getting extended and had been up four days in a row so I was looking for a mean reversion setup. It was gapping down in pre-market even with more war-related headlines overnight.
I shorted in pre-market, added a bit more after the open, and covered some on the first wash below the pre-market range. Then oil bounced and stopped me out, but I still thought the thesis was intact.
A few hours later, fresh headlines hit saying Iran’s president was ready to end the war. Markets ripped, oil sold off hard, and I was able to jump on the breaking news candle and catch the big flush. The best trades are when the news and chart align.
VRAX
VRAX was a low-float biotech under $1, up on ISO news, and it fit the profile of a historical fader. I’ve traded this ticker a bunch in the past. I started short in pre-market and kept recycling around a core as it started to fade.
At the open I pressed it again and kept reshoring each lower high. That let me stay with the move without overcomplicating it, and I caught the big wash pretty well. I covered most of it there and this ended up being one of the cleanest trades of the day.
GLD
GLD (Gold) was breaking over a clean range on the daily after it found a potential short term bottom last week. I got long on the break over open range highs and got steady upside follow-through. I scaled out in pieces as it trended up the entire day.
One spot I could have added more was when it consolidated above VWAP and broke higher again. Solid trade, but I didn’t maximize it.
Swings
I bought RKLB for a swing. It was bouncing off the 200-day moving average and I liked the mix of theme strength plus some possible upcoming catalysts.
Current holdings: RKLB
Other Notable Mentions
KIDZ was the other main small cap gapper and I missed it. It gave a clean fade and I just was not involved.
Takeaways
Today was a good reminder that the thesis can still be right even if the first entry is not. USO took a few tries, but staying flexible let me catch the real move when the headline finally confirmed the setup. VRAX was the cleanest execution of the day. Going into tomorrow, I want to stay sharp on intraday adds in winners because I left some extra on the table in GLD.